Thompson #2 in Bloomberg/LA Times Poll

Thompson is beating McCain (it is incredible that an undeclared candidate would be doing this well):

Rudy Giuliani is still the favourite presidential contender for Republican Party supporters in the United States, according to a poll by Bloomberg and the Los Angeles Times. 29 per cent of respondents would back the former New York City mayor in a 2008 primary.

Actor and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson is second with 15 per cent, followed by Arizona senator John McCain with 12 per cent, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney with eight per cent, and former House of Representatives speaker Newt Gingrich with seven per cent.

Support is lower for former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, former Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson, Kansas senator Sam Brownback, California congressman Duncan Hunter, and California congressman Tom Tancredo.

But Morris thinks that Rudy will take the prize because of his support of the war and that the war will trump abortion:

If Thompson were to run, he would fight an all-out battle with Giuliani for conservative Republicans. A recent Gallup Poll found that 22% of self-described pro-life Republicans – who constitute 2/3 of the GOP primary turnout – still vote for Rudy despite his widely known pro-choice position. Gallup has Rudy in first place among those pro-life voters, although by less than the 33% he gets from those who are pro-choice.

But Fred Thompson would give Rudy a real run for his money among these social conservatives. Significantly, in the LA Times poll, Thompson received more support from Christian conservatives – 21%- than any of the other candidates. Giuliani followed with 17% and McCain trailed with 10%.

My bet is that Rudy will still prevail because terrorism trumps abortion as an issue for the GOP right, but it could get close.

A conservative would have a tough time against a liberal for the conservative vote? Yeah, that makes sense. Why the heck do you think we've been looking around for other candidates? We want a real conservative and Thompson is a fit.

Morris' argument is fallacious because it presupposes that Thompson's support of the war is somehow less than Rudy's support, which is ridiculous. Thompson is pretty vocal in his support of the war on terror, so Rudy doesn't have a lock on this vote. In fact Rudy hasn't been sounding too strong on the war in Iraq lately:

But in discussing the deployment of more troops, Mr. Giuliani has been alone in saying that such a strategy may not succeed, potentially providing him cover should the situation in Iraq deteriorate further. And he has put the strategy in a broader context that plays down the importance of Iraq.

Terrorists “are going to continue to be at war with us, no matter what the outcome in Iraq,” Mr. Giuliani said recently in New Hampshire. The night before, he said that “there are no sure things,” and that if the United States fails in Iraq, “we have to be ready for that, too.” In California a few days later, speaking of “the danger of focusing on Iraq too much,” he said that complete success there would not win the fight against terrorism, and that failure there would not lose it.

(via)

The gun owners are happy that Thompson is entering the race since the top three candidates aren't good choices:

As has been pointed out by numerous contributors to buckeyefirearms.org, the trio who have up to now been considered the "big three" Republican front-runners, Giuliani, McCain and Romney, all present glaring flaws in the eyes of gun owners. By comparison, Mr. Thompson has a strong pro-gun record as a legislator. A 2000 report from a campaign-finance watchdog group, Common Cause, found that the NRA, Gun Owners of America, and the Georgia Gun Owners PAC donated $188,954 to Mr. Thompson between 1993 and 1999.

And then there's this blurb from an article about the effects Thompson has had on the race:

Some political experts have questioned whether Thompson will be able to keep up with the pace of a presidential campaign. Others caution that the honeymoon phase with the media and voters will end soon and tough questions about his stance on issues will quickly follow.

Honeymoon phase? What honeymoon phase? They've already questioned his Christianity, his voting record, whether he's lazy, whether he's conservative enough, whether he can raise the money or staff this late in the game, etc. What more could they write about? (I'm sure they'll find something.)