Tuesday, October 24, 2006

More Bogus Poll Results

You really can't learn too much about what's going to happen on the local level from a national poll. In the Washington Post-ABC News poll, independents are swinging toward the Democrats:

Two weeks before the midterm elections, Republicans are losing the battle for independent voters, who now strongly favor Democrats on Iraq and other major issues facing the country and overwhelmingly prefer to see them take over the House in November, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The new poll underscores how much of a drag the war threatens to be on Republican candidates in competitive races. With debate underway in Washington about possible course changes in Iraq, Americans cite the war as the most important issue in determining their vote next month more often than any other issue, and those who do favor Democrats over Republicans by 76 percent to 21 percent.

But nowhere does it say how many independents they polled. Since they have results for Republicans and Democrats then it must be a percentage of this number:
The Post-ABC News poll findings are based on telephone interviews with 1,200 adults conducted Thursday through Sunday. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.
Which would mean they're basing their results on probably a sample size of 325 (I'm basing this on other polls I've seen). The sample size is too small to determine what will happen at the national level. It's just another attempt at demoralizing the base. It's will only have the opposite effect.

Updated to correct grammar errors: I've really got to stop posting at 6:00 in the morning. This wasn't even coherent.