Sunday, October 15, 2006

See, Bush and Rove have a reason for optimism

To those strategists who think Bush is delusional, here is why he is optimistic:

A similar trend appears in recent polls by the Pew Research Center and Gallup, which show that Democrats -’ level of engagement is higher than in the midterm elections of 2002, 1998 and especially 1994, when a Republican landslide gave the party control of the House and Senate.

Democratic strategists consider this new intensity a critical advantage throughout the ups and downs of a campaign narrative driven at various times by war, national security scares, gas prices and, most recently, the scandal surrounding former Representative Mark Foley, Republican of Florida.

"There's been a consistent pattern for the better part of a year that Democrats are pretty focused on what they're voting for and what they're voting against,"” said Geoffrey Garin, a Democratic pollster, "while Republican voters are feeling ambivalent on both fronts."

Voter intensity can bubble up from the grass roots, but it can also be stoked (or dampened) by the candidate -’ campaigns and harnessed by a sophisticated turnout campaign.

Conservative voters have many reasons to be less enthusiastic this year, analysts say, including their party'’s deficit spending and the scandal over Mr. Foley'’s conduct toward Congressional pages, not to mention an array of local Republican scandals in Ohio. But if the Republican get-out-the-vote drive, known as the 72-Hour Project, lives up to its billing, said Andrew Kohut, head of the Pew center, "the turnout consequences for the G.O.P. might not be as dire as these poll numbers suggest."

The Republican machine was on full display last weekend in Ohio, where volunteers worked phone banks in all 88 counties on what the party called Super Saturday. They contacted 100,000 carefully selected potential Republican voters and knocked on the doors of 50,000. When the day was done, Jason Mauk, the political director for the state party, said, "“I think that really discredits the notion that Republican voters and volunteers are not energized."
This last part undermines the premise of their report. There are some of us who can't wait to get to the polls. I'm not ambivalent on any front, I'm eager to vote. I'm eager even though I can't stand the Republican candidate for senate, I think he's a Rino and not a very good candidate. I have no idea who is running for the House seat, but I can't wait to vote for them. I'm pretty sure they are going to lose, but I'm still eager to vote for them because I can't wait to make my voice heard. We listen to these people protest, chanting, "Bush lied, people died" and all the talking heads blathering on about poll numbers and what the American people want or think, they haven't a clue what we think and on election day, we can let them know what we think. I can't wait to tell them.

The main thing that motives me is the war on terror, I'm so fearful that the Democrats will impeach Bush when they get into power, that is my motivator and I'm sure that it motives others. That's the subtext in this article, people are fearful about what will happen if Republicans stay home. Fear is as much of a motivator as hate, in fact sometimes even more so.

Related post here.